Long Story Short
What if your theory of change could actually help you make decisions? It can — if you treat it as a living hypothesis, not a static document for funders. We created a Theory of Change Toolkit to help you do just that, including Helia’s real-life filled-in example (including all the messiness and places we got stuck) so you can see it in action before trying it yourself!
Jump to How!
I’ll be honest — I’ve had a complicated relationship with theories of change.
For years, they felt incredibly binding and performative. A funder would say, “Bring me your theory of change.” A foundation would send a template for me to fill out, and I’d sit there thinking, “This is not actually reflective of the work we’re doing or how we’re doing it.” It felt like being asked to live in a box. And I don’t want to live in a box. I want to listen and learn and be responsive — and trust in myself and those around me to help us move toward what matters as the world around us changes.
Don’t get me wrong — I’m a big believer in getting a plan down on paper. I like OKRs. I like building something structured I can iterate from. But things that feel so final and concrete and rigid? They make me think about all the ways the system doesn’t work — all the ways it’s trying to control and manage everything instead of staying close to the people and the work, and the way both are evolving.
At Think of Us, people asked me about our theory of change constantly. I spoke about it nationally. And my answer was always the same: We want folks touched by child welfare to say they’re thriving. That’s it. Are folks saying they’re thriving? Then our theory of change is working.
And I got so much pushback on that. How do you define thriving, Jess? How do you measure it?
My answer was rarely satisfying to those folks: “If someone says they’re thriving, they’re thriving.” But I believed it. I still do.
The person who changed how I think about theory of change
Julia Matthews started her career as a teacher in the Bronx. And, as her students were middle schoolers, she learned early that if you want to get people somewhere, you have to start with what matters to them.
That instinct has shaped everything since: business school at Dartmouth, management consulting at Booz focused on healthcare, building online learning infrastructure at Relay Graduate School of Education, leading consulting engagements at Columbia’s Center for Public Research and Leadership, and eventually standing up the sustainability and social impact function at Peloton — a role she held for nearly six years through COVID, leadership changes, and a rapidly shifting landscape.
At Peloton, Julia built the ESG strategy from scratch — from launching the company’s circularity and sustainability approach to establishing its social impact program, all while strengthening governance and reporting across the organization. She did it by staying connected to three core questions she asks everywhere she goes:
- What are we actually trying to accomplish
- Are the things we’re doing leading us there?
- How do we check?
What made my conversation with Julia different is that she didn’t talk about theory of change like a template in a funding document to fill out or a box to check. She talked about it like trusting yourself — trusting what you already know because you are closest to the work and the people it is serving — and then thinking through how to organize it so you can communicate it to others and build on it. For Julia, a theory of change is a north star you can ground your work and mindsets in so that when everything is moving around you, you can ask: Is this still true? Are we moving toward this? Does it feel right?
That’s the shift — that your theory of change is not a rigid plan that sits on a shelf. It’s proactive grounding so you’re not just responding to everything that comes at you every single day. It’s your starting point to check back in, reground in what matters, remind yourself why you’re doing this work, and then do the hard work of mapping it and sharing it out. And when conditions change — because they will — you have something to come back to.
The Key Takeaway
Your theory of change isn’t a document you write once for a funder — it’s a living hypothesis you constantly test and iterate on. It’s your north star. Get precise about what you’re doing, honest about what you can actually influence, and disciplined about checking whether your actions are leading to results. When done right, it gives you the grounding to move and adapt — not a rigid plan that sits on a shelf.
Julia’s Theory of Change Framework
Julia’s framework for creating a Theory of Change follows the steps below. If you learn better by seeing a completed example, jump to Helia’s Theory of Change in the Theory of Change Toolkit we made for you! We’re sharing our actual answers, including the places where we got stuck and the moments where Julia pushed back, because a blank template is only so helpful. Seeing someone else’s messy, honest version? That’s the thing that actually gets you unstuck.
- Your North Star — The long-term change you exist to create
- Your Result — What it looks like when it’s working
- Your Actions — What you’re actually doing to get there
- Your Levers — Are you changing what people know, how they feel, or what they do?
- Your Measures — How you know it’s working — and how close those signals are to your actual work
- Your Hypothesis Check — What to ask when results aren’t showing up
If you’re a “tell me why this works” kind of person (aka our Founder Jess), read on for the good stuff.
How to map out a Theory of Change
Step 1: Your North Star — The long-term change you exist to create
Julia uses a personal example to explain this: “Let’s say you’ve decided — new year, new you — and you want to get healthy. Well, first you have to really define what that means. Are you focused on strength for longevity? Weight? Sleep? How you feel? There are all these different ways you can conceptualize it.”
Using the long-term change you exist to create framing, Julia shapes this into a north star: “Over time, I’m going to have a great health span and live a long and happy life and be able to show up for my grandkids.”
“Showing up for your grandkids” is a true north star — the thing everything else is in service of. Not the tagline. Not the grant language. The real, long-term thing.
Step 2: Your Result — What it looks like when it’s working
If your north star is the horizon, your result is the mile marker(s). What are the signs you’re getting closer?
In the health example:
- you wake up with less pain
- you have more energy
- your cardiac age is improving
For an organization, the people you serve are:
- saying something different
- behaving differently
- experiencing something measurably better
The key is getting specific enough that you’d actually know progress to the north star is happening.
3. Your Actions — What you’re actually doing to get there
This is where Julia pushes hardest. “Okay, you’re gonna eat healthy and exercise. But what does that actually mean? Eating well to me might look different from what eating well means to somebody down the street. You really want to quantify that.”
She’s relentless about precision: “I walked on the treadmill for five minutes. Have I done it? Or is it that I’m gonna exercise in zone two so that my heart is beating at a certain rate, and then lift to failure?”
You can’t measure what you haven’t defined. And most theories of change fail here — they describe intentions, not actions with fidelity.
(Note — This is where we got stuck when creating Helia’s Theory of Change. Our first answer was basically ‘we share content and connect people.’ Julia pushed us to get way more specific!!!)
The question isn’t whether you can measure — it’s whether you’re measuring the right thing, and if it’s close enough to your actual work.
4. Your Levers — Are you changing knowledge, attitudes, or actions?
At Peloton, Julia’s team got precise about what they were actually trying to change: “We wanted to increase people’s knowledge, attitudes, and actions related to health. Those were the three levers we were trying to pull. Our interventions were always in one or more of those categories.”
You don’t have to pull all three, but you do need to know which ones you’re pulling. (Sounds obvious — and yet it’s not something I’m good at!!! I’m often a more is more kind of human so this was VERY helpful!)
For a mental health workshop series, they were focused on knowledge and attitudes — not actions. “We worked with the Steve Fund to implement these workshops. The way we assessed success was to survey the students: As a result of this workshop, do you have an understanding of the mental health services available to you? Are you likely to participate if you have the need?”
The importance is the synchronicity of the assessment and the thing that you’re looking to change. If you’re trying to change knowledge, measure knowledge. If you’re trying to change behavior, measure behavior. Don’t measure one and claim the other.
5. Your Measures — How you know it’s working
Julia pushes back hard on the idea that some things can’t be measured: “I think everything can be measured. You can ask a kindergarten student who doesn’t know how to read yet to point to the happy face or the sad face. That’s data.” (Not just for kindergartners! Kind of think this would be up my alley on a lot of things too…!)
The question isn’t whether you can measure — it’s whether you’re measuring the right thing, and if it’s close enough to your actual work.
“People start measuring something that’s removed from the intervention. And then there are like ten other things that influence whether that result is gonna happen. So it’s not actually helpful to gather what you’re measuring because it could have been because of your work, could have been because of something else. We actually don’t know.”
The test: If your ultimate outcome metric isn’t moving, can your closer-in measures tell you where in the chain things broke?
Note – at Helia we don’t have an actual dashboard (yet!). But we are building a rhythm. → See what our actual measurement approach looks like in Helia’s Theory of Change, Section 5.
6. Your Hypothesis Check — What to ask when results aren’t showing up
Here’s where the “living hypothesis” part becomes real. Julia walks through her own health example:
“Let’s say I’m doing all the things — eating well, exercising, sleeping, limiting alcohol — and my cardiac age isn’t improving. It’s still elevated. Then what?”
She runs through three questions:
Are we doing the actions with fidelity? “Am I actually exercising in zone two, or did I walk on the treadmill for five minutes and call it done?”
Are we measuring the right thing? “Maybe cardiac age isn’t the right measure for me right now because of my blood pressure medication. Maybe I should be measuring how I feel every morning instead.”
Is there a factor we haven’t accounted for? “I’ve done all these things and my blood pressure is still elevated — maybe I left something off my actions. Maybe blood pressure medication is a primary lever I haven’t addressed.”
Then you adjust. Change the action, change the metric, or name the missing factor. This isn’t failure —this is the tool working.
“You need to hold it all loosely as a hypothesis —a system that helps you see if you’re doing the things you want to get to the results you want.”
Julia is honest about why this is hard: “This stuff is so hard, and it’s deceptively hard. People just don’t have their heads around why it’s so hard. It looks easy. It looks simple. But I do this a lot, and even I can’t easily give you an example on the spot.”
The frameworks that funders ask for? Often they’re using a tool they don’t understand the nuances of. “When people are using a tool that they don’t understand the limitations of or the sophistication required to engage with it thoughtfully, you get to people being like — ‘Well, you’re not even listening to what I’m saying. And suddenly we’re using a framework that doesn’t allow me to show that easily.’”
That frustration you feel when a funder asks for your theory of change? It’s not inherent to the principle. It’s inherent to people’s lack of experience with it.
Done well, theory of change isn’t a box to check. It’s a tool for continuous improvement — constantly going up and down to check if the hypothesis is right, if you’re collecting the right data at the right intervals, and consuming it appropriately so you can ask: Am I doing everything I can, given the thing I’m trying to accomplish?
When to Do This Yourself vs. Bring Someone In
The worksheet in our Theory of Change Toolkit can get you pretty far on your own — especially if you block an hour, grab a colleague, and talk it through out loud. (The talking version is almost always better than the writing version.)
But you might need help if:
- Your team can’t agree on what the north star actually is — and the conversation keeps going in circles
- You have a theory of change but it lives in a drawer and doesn’t inform any real decisions
- Your theory of change and your funder’s theory of change don’t match — and you need help navigating that conversation
- You need to build the measurement systems to actually track whether your levers are working
- You’re facing a strategic pivot and need someone to hold the conversation as you recalibrate
If You Want Help
Julia Matthews does not currently have capacity for new clients, but Helia Collective Member Nicole Pollock does similar work in the organizations she supports.
- You need someone who can hold the conversation — not just hand you a template
- You’re building or rebuilding your strategy and want a thought partner who’s done it inside organizations (not just consulted on it)
- You need help translating what you know into something you can communicate to funders, boards, and teams
- You’re navigating rapidly changing conditions and need a framework that helps you adapt, not one that locks you in
Connect with Nicole!
What to Take With You
Here’s our Theory of Change Toolkit to get you started:
- Julia’s Theory of Change Worksheet — Six sections that build on each other: north star, result, actions, levers, measures, hypothesis check. Block an hour and talk it through with someone who knows your work.
- Helia’s Theory of Change — Our filled-in example so you can see what the worksheet looks like in action — including the messy parts and the places where we got stuck.
- Quick Reference: When Results Aren’t Showing Up — Three questions to run through when your numbers aren’t moving.
Recommended reading:
- Leading Through Learning: Operationalized Theory of Action — From Columbia’s Center for Public Research and Leadership, where Julia led consulting engagements on continuous improvement
- Julia recommends The Annie E. Casey Foundation’s resources on Theory of Change including their How To Guide and Examples (note that these felt overwhelming/not accessible to me at first but once I spent time with them, I was all in!
Questions to Sit With
- If someone asked you right now what your theory of change is — could you say it in two sentences? Or would you reach for a document?
- Of the things you’re currently measuring, which ones have actually changed a decision you made in the last year?
- Are your actions defined precisely enough that you’d know if you were doing them with fidelity — or are they more like “eat healthy”?
- When’s the last time you checked whether your hypothesis was still right — or have you been heads-down executing a plan you haven’t revisited?
- If your results aren’t showing up, do you know where in the chain things might be breaking — actions, measures, or a factor you haven’t accounted for?
Not sure Nicole‘s the right fit? Talk to Helia directly!
This article comes from a coffee chat with Julia Matthews in February 2025. These conversations form the heart of the Helia Library — because we’ve learned the most from doing and from talking with other doers willing to share their wisdom. We don’t need to start from blank pages or do everything alone.
As always, take what’s helpful, leave what’s not, and make it your own.
About Julia
Julia Matthews started as a seventh-grade teacher in the Bronx and has spent her career asking the same question everywhere she goes: What are we actually trying to accomplish, are the things we’re doing leading us there, and how do we check?
That question took her through management consulting at Booz, building online learning infrastructure at Relay Graduate School of Education, leading consulting engagements at Columbia, and standing up the sustainability and social impact function at Peloton — where she spent nearly six years navigating COVID, leadership changes, and a rapidly shifting landscape.
